An adaptive methodology to predict daily consumption behaviour in water distribution systems

14 June 2016

Sérgio Teixeira Coelho and Margarida Azeitona Baseform

Water utilities can operate their systems at higher efficiencies when they are able to predict water consumption in the short and long terms. Baseform develops forward-thinking software for networked water infrastructures, including applications that use real time flow monitoring records to analyse demand patterns and forecast their behaviours. In this talk, we show how statistical methodologies can be a crucial aid in understanding human behaviour.
Several methodologies can be applied to predict the 24-hour demand pattern in district metering areas (DMA) of water distribution systems. However, in most cases, it is essential to know in advance the characteristics of each flow time-series, to choose the most suitable combination of parameters to use as the input of the method. In particular, the demand pattern derived is dynamic and may be influenced by the period of time considered. An adaptive predictive model of the pattern based on some selection criteria, which automatically choose the most appropriate parameterizations is described, in an attempt to overcome these drawbacks. This new approach is built on the concept of weighted percentiles, allowing the prediction to quickly adjust to changes in the consumption habits, as validated through the application to a large number of DMA.



Sérgio Teixeira Coelho co-founded and leads Baseform. He has 25 years’ experience in applied R&D, developing methods and models for demand analysis, hydraulic & water quality simulation, performance assessment, and infrastructure planning. He has a PhD in Civil Engineering Systems. Margarida Azeitona is the latest addition to Baseform's R&D team. She received hers BSc. and MSc. degrees from Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), Portugal, in applied mathematics.